Some insights provided by our model are ostensibly counter-intuitive. These proportions allow the long-run distribution of tumour sizes in asymptomatic and symptomatic women to be derived from the individual components of the model. U 0,1 and incorporating an additional term in the posterior for each natural history of breast cancer in which DCIS could be detected see Supplementary Materialwith a parameter characterising the prevalence of aggressive DCIS on screening, with an informative prior distribution derived from Leonard and Swain Women without symptomatic disease have natural history of breast cancer specific probability of attending screening, assumed to be the same for those with no or asymptomatic disease. Figure 1 and Supplementary Material Table 7 outlines the observed screening pathway and detected tumour sizes.
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Decision analytic models have become a cornerstone history assessing costs and benefits of natural and health technology interventions Brennan and Akehurst,allowing the benefits of an intervention evaluated in clinical trials to be estimated relative to standard care, as well as to breast cancer the implications for modification of an intervention's use Sun and Faunce, Likelihood function The likelihood function was calculated for both the screening and control study arms, as the product of two multinomial probability masses. KSC conceived the study and drafted the manuscript.
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The model differentiates between indolent and aggressive DCIS tumours, and aggressive tumours of different sizes. Tumour size predicts long-term survival among women with natural history of breast cancer node-positive breast cancer. Author information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaimer. It is, however, necessary to understand the distribution of sojourn times in the targeted age group when formulating screening policy Duffy et al, and so future work accounting for different age groups, analysing the cost-effectiveness and looking into women's quality-adjusted life years for various screening strategies, would be valuable. J Am Stat Assoc.
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